Explaining Fertility Differences in Sub-Saharan Africa: Projecting the Demographic Future

Author: Mturi, Akim J and Agyei-Mensah, Samuel
This must read edited collection of research on African demography is relevant to a broad spectrum of readers including scholars, researchers, professionals, population scientists, sociologists, human geographers and others interested in Africa. It aids in developing an understanding of the contemporary diversity in African reproductive regimes and helps build capacity among scientists and researchers in fertility research.


“With a blend of multi-country analyses and more in-depth investigations of specific settings, the authors present a comprehensive account of trends in African reproduction. The picture that emerges is complex, diverse and intriguing…This book is essential reading for population scientists, sociologists and human geographers interested in Africa.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the last remaining region with high fertility and rapid population growth. What happens to fertility in this region will shape the future of the planet’s population. According to the most recent United Nations projections, fertility in Africa is expected to drop from over five births per woman today to 3.2 births by 2050. Under this scenario, the population of Africa will grow from 0.83 to 2.1 billion between 2010 and mid-century. This increase of 1.3 billion represents half of total global growth. In 1950 Africa’s population accounted for 78 percent of the world total. By 2050, this proportion is likely to be 22 percent and may well rise to 35 percent by the end of the century... Population increase will be the main driver of future demand for food.”
-John Cleland,
Department of Population Health,
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Table of Contents

Foreword by John Cleland
1: Fertility Diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Introduction:
Akim J. Mturi and Samuel Agyei-Mensah
2: Fertility Transitions: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Different?
John Bongaarts and John B. Casterline
3. Fertility Divergence and Inequality in the Next Generation:
A Framework and Partial Test
Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue, Michel Tenikue, and Mathias Kuepie
4. Demographic Transition in Africa:
The Polygyny and Fertility Nexus
Paul Cahu, Falilou Fall and Roland Pongou
5. The Mismatch Between Contraceptive Use and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa
Akim J. Mturi, Godswill N. Osuafor and Mark J. Lyons-Amos
6. Fertility Desires and Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa
John B. Casterline and Samuel Agyei-Mensah
7. The Persistence of High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa:
A Comparative Study of Three Countries
Natal Ayiga and Charles Lwanga
8. Planification Familiale Et Fécondité En Afrique Sub-Saharienne Francophone Après La Cipd De 1994
Mburano Rwenge
9. Fertility, Contraception and Method Mix in Tanzania:
Trends and Changes Since 1990
Michelle Weinberger and Ernestina Coast
10. Trends and Determinants of Fertility in Rural and Urban Ethiopia
Eshetu Gurmu
11. Towards Replacement Level Fertility in urban Africa:
An Accra Case Study
Allan G. Hill, Samuel Agyei-Mensah and John K. Anarfi
12. Conclusion and Future Prospects
Samuel Agyei-mensah and Akim J. Mturi