Developing a Theoretical Model of Counter-proliferation for the 21st Century

Author: Bates, Brian
McHorney, Chris
Examining counterproliferation as a global phenomenon, the authors use an in-depth analysis of the Counterproliferation Initiative to develop a theoretical model of counterproliferation for the 21st century. Arguing that existing counterproliferation policy is the product of bureaucratic competition, the authors propose several modifications of existing policy. In the second half of the book, they use four case studies (Cuban Missile Crisis, Persian Gulf War, Osirak Reactor Raid, and Sudan) to identify factors that might contribute to an effective counterproliferation strategy. More specifically, the authors explore the relationship between the strength of an intelligence-gathering apparatus and the successful or unsuccessful elimination of weapons of mass destruction. The study concludes with observations and limited predictions regarding the future of counterproliferation.


“In this fine overview of the Clinton administration’s Counterproliferation Initiative, Brian Bates and Chris McHorney tackle this complex planning issue by systematically describing the competing policies intended to bolster the ability of US military units to operate on 21st century battlefields. They describe the evolution, philosophy and limits of the US military effort to counter the political and strategic consequences produced by the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Bates and McHorney identify the bureaucratic compromise that shaped the Counterproliferation Initiative and explain how the distinction between nonproliferation and counterproliferation is unclear in theory and in practice. . . . an important and thoughtful introduction to a defense policy that will become increasingly important in the years ahead.” – James Wirtz, Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, co-editor of Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Weapons

Table of Contents

Table of Contents:
Preface by Aaron Karp
1. Introduction
2. The Counterproliferation Initiative
3. Tools of the Trade
4. The Counterproliferation Continuum
5. Counterproliferation: A Global Phenomenon?
6. Counterproliferation: An Historical Survey – Cuban Missile Crisis, Osirak Reactor Raid, Persian Gulf War, Al Shifa and Osama bin Laden
7. Counterproliferation in the 21st Century
Acronyms, Bibliography
Appendix: Speech given by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin; Memorandum to Robert Gallucci and Ashton Carter; Dept of Defense Table – Prevent and Protect; Joint Statement on Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Means of Their Delivery; Speech by Assistant Secretary of Defense Edward Warner (Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy – PDD 60); Executive Order 12938; Executive Order 13094; Memorandum on Security Assurances (Kazakhistan); Presidents of the United States; Secretaries of Defense; Directors of Central Intelligence